Health Workforce Modeling in Indonesia
Executive Summary
This study is the result of Reconstra’s work as a technical partner commissioned by the Directorate of Health Workforce Planning, Ministry of Health of the Republic of Indonesia, to strengthen needs-based medical workforce planning.
Planning for medical and health workforce requirements is a critical foundation for delivering equitable, accessible, and high-quality health services across Indonesia. The key challenge today lies not only in the limited number of health workers but also in the mismatch between workforce availability and communities’ actual service needs. As a result, workforce planning can no longer rely solely on population-based ratios and must instead be grounded in real service workloads.
The study applies an integrated need–demand–supply approach. Need reflects healthcare requirements based on the population’s disease burden; demand captures actual utilization of services, primarily using data from the National Health Insurance scheme (JKN); and supply represents the availability of active medical personnel, new graduates, and attrition due to retirement or other exits from practice. This approach ensures workforce planning that is more realistic and responsive to on-the-ground conditions.
Workforce requirements are calculated based on actual workloads, including the volume and type of medical procedures, service duration, outpatient consultations, inpatient visits, and effective annual working time. Data are drawn from hospital e-claims, sampled BPJS Kesehatan data, and validated through consultations with specialist medical colleges. Additional correction factors—such as JKN coverage, active membership, and referral compliance—are applied to improve accuracy.
The analysis assesses current needs and projects workforce requirements up to ten years ahead, incorporating population projections, changes in disease burden, and geographic distribution down to provincial and district levels. The results provide a strategic foundation for policy decisions on medical education, workforce distribution, and targeted deployment to underserved areas, supporting a sustainable and equitable national health system.